El clásico, the Real Madrid – Barcelona derby turned out to be a total humiliation for Real Madrid today, as the hosts were blanked out 6 – 2 by a rampaging Barcelona side that moved ever closer to regaining the Primera Liga. To be honest, I think I’ve used the word rampaging incorrectly, because it didn’t seem like the Blaugranas needed to produce an inspired performance to beat Real, who were poor through and through. So while one must not deny Barca the plaudits, one should also not hold back criticism of a spineless Real side, whose obvious shortcomings were exposed by their Catalan rivals, just as Liverpool had a few weeks ago. Real Madrid conceded six goals, their worst defensive performance at home in the history of the derby, but they could well have conceded 16 – yes, they were that bad.

The result puts Barcelona seven points ahead of Real. With just four games left in the Liga, Barca have well and truly wrapped up the league. Given the substantial goal advantage they possess (+72 for Barca against +38 for Real), a win and two draws will guarantee glory for Guardiola’s men. And so they will turn their attention to Wednesday night’s Champions League semifinal second leg at Stamford Bridge.

While I like Barcelona better than Chelsea (who I don’t like), I would consider the home side favorites to progress. Chelsea, having worked their socks off to bring home a creditable 0-0 draw away at the Nou Camp, will offer more of the same but will be a bit more adventurous and try to exploit Barcelona’s defensive fragility – an aspect of their game that Guardiola must work on. Barcelona are without their overrated first choice central defensive pairing (Puyol and Marquez), and Drogba might relish taking on young Pique.

I thought Chelsea would rest many of their big names and field a less potent line-up today. But I was surprised by Hiddink’s decision to play Chelsea’s first team against Fulham. Barca could not have afforded the same luxury as defeat would have meant that Real would be breathing down their necks.

Talking of resting players, Arsenal sent out a virtual B-team against Pompey, and still ran out 3-1 winners. To be fair, United rested Cristiano Ronaldo, Edwin van der Sar and their entire starting midfield from midweek, but that is about as much tinkering that Sir Alex Ferguson could afford.

I predict that the 2009 Champions League final would be a repeat of 2008′s, with Chelsea challenging United in Rome for the crown. Chelsea to win at home against Barcelona, and United to pick up an away win at the Emirates.

 

… have made my day wonderful by beating Liverpool 3-1 at Anfield!

 

June 2008 seems like not so long ago. Why? Because it is not so long ago. And I wrote back then that the Chelsea job is a poisoned chalice. Back when I wrote that piece, Luiz Felipe Scolari seemed like he would give the vacancy at Stamford Bridge a pass. Would have good for him to have done so.

And now, just like they booted a manager during the previous season, Chelski have shown the World Cup winner the door. The familiar names are back again in the reckoning – Roberto Mancini, Frank Rijkaard, Guus Hiddink, and even Jose Mourinho.

The truth is, and Sir Alex Ferguson captured it well earlier this season, that Chelsea’s core team is probably over the hill. Any of these names will need time to fix this problem. And it doesn’t seem as if Roman Abramovich, who kicked out Avram Grant, who came within one penalty kick of lifting the Champions League, rather mercilessly, has the patience — the most important currency he can offer a top manager as the latter tries to engineer a turnaround.

 

A rough measure one can use to compare clubs playing in the same league is to see how many points separate two clubs. If the points difference between two clubs that have played the same number of games is six points or more, one can claim that the two clubs are involved in different mini-leagues. So even though the team that is ranked seventh is only one place ahead of the one in eighth, the latter might not catch the former for quite some time if they are two wins behind.

One can easily notice two mini-leagues in any league table, oftentimes three. The top three or four clubs race away from the pack; there won’t be much that separates the next six or eight teams, and the rest are fighting to avoid relegation.

This season’s Premier League is remarkable in that when divided broadly, the first six teams, as against the usual Big Four, can be taken as one mini-league. Of course, Man United, potentially on 59 points, are almost 20 points ahead of Everton at sixth. Clearly though, United are battling in a two-team league involving themselves and Liverpool, but there isn’t much daylight between Liverpool and Aston Villa, and Villa and Chelsea. The bottom 14 teams are only separated by 12 points, which makes the dogfight to avoid the drop even more interesting. A couple of wins for West Brom, combined with favorable results, can propel them into the zone of assumed safety.

The Primera Liga though is fascinating in a peculiar way. If one used the metric defined above, one will find three mini-leagues, but then they are: Barcelona (with 59 points) in a league of one, second-placed Real Madrid (with 48 points) in a league of one, and the other 18 teams playing in their own league. Stats don’t lie. Barca’s goal difference of 52 (68F; 16A) is just short of that of the next 5 teams put together, or three times Real’s.

In a way the gulf in class between the teams competing in a league is an indicator of how entertaining it is. Apologists for the Liga do not have much to offer other than the sublime skills of Leo Messi or the occasional great save that Casillas pulls off. While the  best of the Premier League compares about the same with the best of the Liga, beyond the top two, the Liga cannot be claimed as engaging when the top two are not playing, and not as competitive even when they are playing one of the bottom-half sides. The same however cannot be said of the Premier League. Which closes shut the argument about the best football league in the world.

(The apologists don’t stop there. They claim that Everton cannot match Sevilla or Valencia in Europe, so the Liga is better. Wake up. You are lumping the top four teams in England together, and your answer for that is only the top two teams in Spain. And given Real’s dismal European exits over the past so many seasons, Spain’s adventures in Europe are limited to those of one club from Catalonia.)

However, one cannot fault Barcelona for the incompetence of the rest. Not even a fool can gainsay that a club that averages three goals every game is ordinary. A couple of years ago, when Roger Federer was the master of all he surveyed, the familiar argument was to decide if he was indeed the greatest tennis player ever. Inconclusive as such arguments always turn out to be, they also generated an important takeaway, namely other comparable greats — Pete Sampras, for example —  had to overcome much more formidable opponents.

And so it is, the truth of whether Barcelona are indeed the best team in Europe will only be known when they clash with the Premier League’s heavyweights in the Champions League. Whatever the result of those titanic tussles might be, Barca’s prowess alone does not make the Primera Liga the best. The more competitive English Premier League remains the greatest show on earth.

 

Though already a UEFA Cup winner, Jose Mourinho came to be taken seriously across Europe after his FC Porto side knocked Manchester United out of the 2003-04 Champions League. We know the rest of the story. Porto won the Champions League, Mourinho went to Chelsea, won two consecutive league titles and had a solid record against the Red Devils. The man now renews his rivalry against the current European champions as Inter Milan have been drawn against United in this year’s Champions League Round 2. Heart says United.

The fireworks do not end there.

Liverpool have drawn Real Madrid. Given Pool’s formidable record in the Champions League under Rafael Benitez, and Real’s dismal performances in the same period, I would put my money on the English team. Can Ramos work juanders?

There are two other Anglo-Italian clashes. Arsenal v/s Roma; and Chelsea v/s Juventus. It seems like a million years since AS Roma drew a team other than United. In any case, I don’t see them progressing past the Gunners. The Chelsea-Juve tie should be a fascinating contest. The team from Turin have been absent from Europe’s top club competition for some years, while Chelsea have made it to (or past) the semis in 3 of the past 4 seasons. Tough one, but I think Chelsea might prevail.

Barcelona take on Lyon. Barca under Guardiola are seem the best team in Europe at the moment, so they should make light work of the French champions. I expect Villareal, Bayern Munich and Atletico Madrid to reach the quarterfinals, edging out Panathinaikos, Sporting and Porto in their respective ties.

What are your picks? Who do you think will progress?

 

When Harry Redknapp took over the reins at Tottenham Hotspur from Portsmouth a week ago, the jury was unsure about the effectiveness of the move. In their first 8 games this season, Spurs, under Juande Ramos, could muster only 2 points. Spurs were in free fall, and below Bolton and even Newcastle (!) in the drop zone.

Redknapp’s arrival though has turned fortunes around at White Hart Lane. And today’s win over league leaders Liverpool makes it 7 points out of a possible 9 under the new manager. Belief is key to victory, and Spurs seem to be finding their feet.

The loss for Liverpool is good news for Manchester United, who are within 5 points of the top two, and with a game in hand. United though made it tough for themselves allowing Hull City to come back within striking distance after leading the visitors 4-1. While the Red Devils did win the points, the manner in which they won it raises doubts if they are up to the task of making it a hat-trick of Premier League crowns.

And Chelsea’s form is cause for concern at Old Trafford. The Blues romped home 5-0 against Roy Keane’s Sunderland. Poor is an inadequate adjective to describe the Wearsiders; abysmal sounds just about appropriate for a side that has stuttered in their aims to break into the top half of the Premiership. This could be another long season for Sunderland, as the relegation battle looms large.

Arsenal, who could only manage a draw in their midweek derby against Tottenham (4-4, after leading 4-2 with just two minutes to go), continued their poor streak with a loss to Stoke. Given Chelsea’s form, Liverpool’s ability to win games and Man United’s resurgence, it seems doubtful if the Gunners will be able to mount a serious challenge for the Premiership.

 

Frank RijkaardImage via WikipediaCarlo Ancelotti has, according to reports, rejected an offer to manage Chelsea Football Club. The offer is known to be in the range of 6 million pounds a year, effectively double his current contract with AC Milan.

Ancelotti’s snub reveals the extent to which top managers in Europe think unfavorably of the Chelsea job. In terms of performance in the Champions League in recent years, the Italian leads the pack with three final appearances and two trophies in the last six seasons. However, his teams are not exactly known for playing the type of football that Roman Abramovich wants to see, yet his money cannot buy.

With Mark Hughes* rejecting Chelsea to accept the relative comfort of Manchester City, the past 24 hours has seen both of Chelsea’s targets jilt them. It was previously rumored that Luiz Felipe Scolari might be handed the reins at Stamford Bridge, but the Brazilian had not been as forthcoming. Now the spotlight falls on Frank Rijkaard and Roberto Mancini, who was not really a choice until yesterday.

The manager’s role at Chelsea might mean lots of money, both to spend and to take home, but it also comes with an uncertain job description – one that expects the best of both worlds (good football and winning football). So, even Jose Mourinho‘s 6 trophy wins in 3 seasons was deemed not good enough. In the recent past, only two managers have proved that they can win the Champions League while playing attractive football – Frank Rijkaard and Sir Alex Ferguson. Considering the latter might not be too keen on uprooting his family to the south, Rijkaard now seems most likely to inherit the poisoned chalice.

* Mark Hughes deciding to leave Blackburn Rovers for Manchester City is surprising. Considering that Sven-Goran Eriksson was sacked by Thaksin Shinawatra, though the Swede led City to their best finish in recent years, the demands of the boss at City is just as uncertain. How long can Sparky last?

Mar 232008
 

Rafael Benitez, the Liverpool manager, said earlier this week that Javier Mascherano was the new Roy Keane. In attempting to live up to his manager’s expectations, the Argentinian failed rather badly, by evoking only the bad side of the former United captain. Mascherano got himself sent off in the first half.

Liverpool fans would have you believe that this was the reason Manchester United beat them. But few would have any doubts which the better side on the day was, if only by a few notches when it was eleven against eleven. United look good to take the title.

Arsenal face off against Chelsea shortly. The Gunners are on 67 points; Chelsea, the hosts, have 65. To a United fan, the acceptable outcome would be if Arsenal fail to win. The best result would be a draw would put Arsenal 5 points behind United, with Chelsea being 7 adrift and almost out of the race. If Chelsea win, they would pip Arsenal into second spot, still 5 points behind United. However, of the two, the Gunners have the tougher run-in (three games against Liverpool in a week; United away the week after). Chelsea have an easier Champions League tie, and some games against the relegation battlers too. So if I could pick a result, I would a draw.

 

Last week, I had ended a post looking forward to the Champions League draws by predicting that United could draw Roma again in the quarterfinals of the Champions League this year. And that this would settle all doubts about whether the draws are doctored. Surely now, this confirms everything.

The pick of the draw though is the Arsenal-Liverpool tie. That should be enthralling! The Gunners, who have done so well this season in the Premier League with their young squad, knocked holders AC Milan out of the competition in the previous round. Liverpool’s all-but-dead season relies on winning the Champions League. I am torn between picking which of these would come good – Benitez’s tactical nous, or Wenger’s philosophy of flowing football. The return leg is at Anfield; so if I had to pick a winner, I would say Liverpool. (Come to think of it, had the Milanese teams knocked out their English opponents, this tie would have been the Milan derby.)

Chelsea, I had written, might get an easy tie. Fenerbahce, good luck to them, is as easy as it gets. So there is the mouthwatering prospect of an all-English semifinal tie. It could be a Liverpool-Chelsea semifinal, which is now almost a routine annual affair. Or a London derby involving the Gunners.

Barcelona have drawn Schalke, and should be pleased. If the ties turn out as I think, we could have a situation similar to last year, with Barcelona replacing Milan in the semis. I’m already looking forward to the Barca-United clash!

 

The pain of enduring Portsmouth knock United out of the FA Cup was allayed by watching Barnsley dump Chelsea out of the competition a few hours later. But it was joy unbounded today as Wigan held Arsenal to a draw, so United retake the League by battering the Rams next weekend!

Portsmouth can now be called odds on favorites to win the FA Cup, what with Boro also bowing out today.

 

For the second successive year, English teams are meeting with increased success in the UEFA Champions League. United, Arsenal and Chelsea are through already to the quarterfinals, and Liverpool look set to join them in a week’s time.

While English football, in general, is moving from one crisis to another (the national side’s poor form, a growing dearth of quality footballing talent, foreign ownership of clubs, an increasing percentage of foreign players), English clubs, and the Big Four in particular, seem to be doing rather well. The past three Champions League finals have featured an English club – Liverpool in 2005 and 2007, and Arsenal in 2006. Except for 2006, every Champions League quarterfinal fixture list has featured at least two English clubs; three clubs reached the semifinals last year.

Assuming Liverpool go through, the other clubs in the running are Barcelona, Schalke, Fenerbahce and Roma, who knocked out a Real Madrid team that I had expected would go farther. With due respect to all the clubs mentioned above, I think only Barcelona are in the same league as the Big Four. So if none of the English clubs were drawn against each other, we can expect a second season in which three English clubs make it to the last four.

Having seen how the ties have come out in the past, I have my own doubts if they are not doctored. Chelsea faced Barcelona in three successive seasons, and Liverpool in the semis twice in three years. My guess is Arsenal would draw Barca, as the Gunners have some grudge left over since the two met in the final two years ago. And United would draw Liverpool, so the Battle of the Reds would spill over to Europe. That gives Chelsea a relatively easy tie, and would also ensure that at least two English teams make it to the semis.

Of course, anything can happen. A dream tie would be to pit Manchester United against Barcelona. Or Liverpool against Barcelona, another grudge tie from the past. Or Roma against Man U once more in the quarters, that would prove beyond all doubt that the draw is definitely doctored.

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